Writing an Investment Thesis on India's Green Hydrogen Sector

As part of a live project between Nucleus, the analytics society at SSCBS, and Havish M Consulting, Uday was tasked with building an investment thesis on India's green hydrogen sector. The brief required a clear, direct view on the investment opportunity, not just a market overview.

He researched the full value chain: electrolyzer manufacturing, production, conversion, transportation, storage, and end-use applications across light and heavy-duty vehicles, maritime, rail, aviation, power generation, and industrial uses including iron, steel, and oil refining. He also mapped the competitive landscape, including the distinction between brown, blue, and green hydrogen production pathways.

His analysis identified specific companies with active projects, including Avada Group and Brice Chemicals, and assessed their positioning relative to large incumbents like Reliance and Adani. He also stress-tested the thesis against structural headwinds: falling solar energy costs as a competing renewable, the ethanol blending program reducing the urgency of hydrogen vehicles, infrastructure limitations, and the capital intensity of the sector.

The essay was written solely by Uday and delivered to Havish M Consulting, who used it in their investment and business decisions. His conclusion was that the space held genuine opportunity for well-positioned startups with government or large private client projects, but that capital intensity and large-incumbent competition were material constraints.