Sourcing Polymarket Before the Prediction Market Cycle
Formed an independent thesis on prediction markets from user behaviour patterns and referred Polymarket to angels before it crossed a billion-dollar valuation.
Onkar Thakur
Investment Team at Hashed Emergent
From their time as
Dealflow Associate
Asva Capital β’ 2024 - 2025
Overview
Onkar had been tracking the meme coin cycle closely at Asva Capital, watching launchpads gain traction. But he was also watching what happened next: creators began fabricating stories, collecting coins from their audiences, and dumping once they hit volume. Trust in the meme coin narrative was eroding from the inside.
The Story
Onkar had been tracking the meme coin cycle closely at Asva Capital, watching launchpads gain traction. But he was also watching what happened next: creators began fabricating stories, collecting coins from their audiences, and dumping once they hit volume. Trust in the meme coin narrative was eroding from the inside.
He shifted his attention to prediction markets. His reasoning was grounded in behaviour he had observed directly: people had always been drawn to casino-style games and light-bet formats, and prediction markets offered a version of that with a cleaner risk profile. He used Polymarket himself to test the experience.
He sourced Polymarket at an early valuation and referred it to angels in his network, making the case that retail capital would flow into prediction markets once the meme coin cycle peaked.
That thesis played out during the US election cycle, when Polymarket saw a significant surge in activity and became a widely referenced prediction platform. The call validated his approach: watching real user behaviour, testing products himself, and connecting those observations to where capital would move next.