Eicher Motors: Building an Independent Sell-Rated Thesis
Built a full investment thesis challenging market optimism on exports and premiumization with years of flat data.
Naman Kriplani
Financial Data Analyst at M5Wealth
From their time as
Financial Data Analyst
Valuefy • 2026
Overview
Naman took on Eicher Motors as a self-directed research project over several months, working on it in the evenings alongside his day job. The starting point was the stock price: the market was pricing in significant optimism, and he wanted to understand whether that optimism was grounded in the data.
The Story
Naman took on Eicher Motors as a self-directed research project over several months, working on it in the evenings alongside his day job. The starting point was the stock price: the market was pricing in significant optimism, and he wanted to understand whether that optimism was grounded in the data.
He identified three pillars the market was betting on: exports growth, premiumization, and a GST tailwind on sales. Each one needed to be tested against the actual numbers rather than management guidance.
On exports, the company's narrative pointed to strong future growth. When Naman pulled several years of export trajectory data, the picture was different. Exports had been flat as a share of total sales volume for the entire period. The market was pricing in a story the data did not support.
On the GST effect, he applied his own judgment about the timeline. His read was that the tailwind would cool within months, meaning the revenue uplift the market was extrapolating would not sustain.
He built the thesis bottom-up, working through industry structure, value chain, financial statement analysis, management quality, and finally valuation. The conclusion was a sell rating at a meaningful discount to the prevailing market price.
He shared the completed report with a mentor who had been guiding his research development. The mentor's feedback was that the work was well-constructed. Naman then published the thesis on LinkedIn, where it reached a large audience and generated strong engagement.