Election Manifesto Research: Mapping BJP Policy to Sector Tailwinds

Hastin took on this assignment in early 2024, ahead of India's general elections. The partner at Transaction Square, knowing his interest in markets, assigned him sole ownership of a research project: read the BJP election manifesto and identify which sectors would benefit if the party came to power and delivered on its commitments.

He read the full 250-page document cover to cover. Rather than taking the manifesto at face value, he reverse-engineered each policy commitment into a demand chain. A pledge to build 55,000 kilometers of additional railway lines meant demand for tracks, bearings, wheels, and aluminum. A commitment to in-house defense manufacturing meant demand for drones, missiles, and precision components. Pledges to build schools and hospitals meant demand for cement, steel, and real estate.

To validate these views on the ground, he organized meetings with three to four founders of Transaction Square's client companies in Kolkata, spanning carbon black manufacturing, solar cells and renewable energy, EV scooters and three-wheelers, and heavy manufacturing including steel. He visited factory floors and spoke directly with branch managers and plant supervisors to understand how the business environment would shift under the proposed policies.

With the sector views validated, he built the stock selection layer. For each sector, he screened companies on four criteria: management quality assessed through historical guidance delivery and related-party transaction patterns; industry leadership measured by margins and operating leverage; capacity headroom to absorb new demand; and ROIC alongside PEG ratio to filter for value. He selected three to four stocks per sector and documented the rationale for each pick over the alternatives.

The final output was a PPT and an accompanying Excel, distributed to over 100 retainer clients and family offices across India. The PPT covered sector logic and policy linkages; the Excel carried the stock picks with performance data and selection rationale.

Around 15 clients responded with appreciation, and seven to eight reached out directly with follow-up questions. Several wanted to understand the connection between AI infrastructure demand and water treatment companies, a link Hastin had identified by attending conference calls of companies like Ion Exchange, DentaWater, and EnviroInfra Engineers and reading their red herring prospectuses. He explained the thesis to clients who could not see the indirect link.