SpaceX Valuation: An Independent Sector View
Formed an independent view on space tech valuations by analyzing SpaceX's P/E against comparable large-cap tech companies.
Dhanraj Johari
Senior Analyst at Ken Research
From their time as
Senior Analyst
Ken Research • 2026
Overview
When the SpaceX IPO generated significant market attention, Dhanraj formed an independent view on the sector outside of any client mandate. The central question he was working through was whether the space tech market had the intrinsic value its promoters were claiming, given the scale of existing societal problems and the early stage of the technology.
The Story
When the SpaceX IPO generated significant market attention, Dhanraj formed an independent view on the sector outside of any client mandate. The central question he was working through was whether the space tech market had the intrinsic value its promoters were claiming, given the scale of existing societal problems and the early stage of the technology.
He started with the narrative being built around SpaceX: that it was being positioned not purely as a space company but as an AI-first business, with Starlink and other AI-adjacent assets bundled into the valuation story. He found that the AI framing was doing significant work in justifying the valuation, rather than the underlying space business economics.
To test this, he compared SpaceX's implied P/E ratio against large-cap tech benchmarks including Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon. The SpaceX multiple exceeded those benchmarks by a significant margin, a gap he found difficult to justify on fundamentals.
His conclusion was that space tech, while narratively compelling, remains a privileged market with limited near-term financial merit for retail investors. The sector's largest representative was, in his view, significantly overvalued relative to its current cash flow profile.