Delhivery Investment Thesis: Full-Stack Analysis at Unnati
Built a complete investment case on Delhivery, from moat identification through blended valuation and primary research
Apoorv Sharma
Equity Research Intern at CLSA
From their time as
Investment Coordinator
Management Development Institute, Gurgaon • 2025 - 2026
Overview
Apoorv led the investment evaluation of Delhivery for the Unnati fund, starting with a question the team kept returning to: why was a logistics company spending two percent of revenue on technology when peers spent a fraction of that?
The Story
Apoorv led the investment evaluation of Delhivery for the Unnati fund, starting with a question the team kept returning to: why was a logistics company spending two percent of revenue on technology when peers spent a fraction of that?
He mapped the moat systematically. The tech spend translated into a docking optimization that reduced fuel costs materially. The mesh network architecture allowed Delhivery to scale faster than hub-and-spoke competitors. The cost structure came in roughly 40% below the nearest peer, and pin code coverage sat just behind the Indian postal network. The asset-light model and debt-free balance sheet reinforced the durability of the position.
With the business case established, Apoorv and the team built a blended financial model combining a DCF weighted at 75%, an EV-to-sales multiple at 25%, a Monte Carlo simulation, and a 52-week high-low analysis. The base case implied a 19% upside, the bear case a 1% upside, and the bull case a 40% upside. The blended valuation landed at approximately 488, representing a 15.55% upside at the time of evaluation.
Primary Research Validation
To pressure-test the model's assumptions, the team ran primary research on two fronts. They distributed a Google Form to customers of Delhivery's direct delivery service, gathering feedback on speed, reliability, and service quality. Responses were broadly positive, with no material complaints on breakage or delays.
For cost validation, the team shipped a test package from MDI Gurgaon to Agra across multiple weight categories, comparing Delhivery's quoted rates against competitors. Delhivery quoted the lowest cost across nearly every weight bracket, confirming the cost advantage the model had assumed.
Defending the Thesis
Apoorv presented this thesis at the CFA Research Challenge National Finals, where the panel questioned every assumption. The sharpest pushback was on the upside: if the business was this strong, why was the team only projecting 15 to 20% rather than 50 to 100%? He defended the conservative assumptions on the basis of the evidence gathered, not management guidance, and held the position.