SpaceX Coverage: Building an Independent Valuation View

When SpaceX IPO'd at a valuation that Aadi judged to be disconnected from its fundamentals, he decided to research the question properly: what would actually need to go right for the company to justify its price?

At the time of his research, SpaceX was trading at a revenue multiple of around 110x despite generating losses across most of its business lines. He broke the company into its three constituent businesses: Starlink, the Falcon and Starship launch vehicles, and xAI. Of the three, only Starlink was generating meaningful revenue. The other two were burning cash, and the bull case for each rested on assumptions that he found difficult to support from the physics and economics of the underlying technology.

He went deep into the space industry to stress-test the claims being made: orbital data centres, solar power from space, asteroid mining. His conclusion was that while the long-term vision was genuinely fascinating, the current valuation required too many things to go right simultaneously to be defensible at the price. Even after falling roughly 50% from its peak, he judged the stock to still be overvalued on a fundamentals basis.

The research became a 29-minute read published on INDmoney's website. It was one of the most detailed pieces he had produced, and it reflected his broader approach: genuine curiosity about what a company could become, combined with rigorous scepticism about what the numbers actually supported.